Business cycle dating in europe
The model’s regime probabilities provide an optimal statistical inference of the turning point of the European business cycle.For assessing the capacity of the parametric approach to generate the stylized facts of the in Europe, the stylized facts of the original data are compared to those of simulated data.I also benefited from comments by Klaus-Jürgen Gern and the participants of a workshop in Dresden and a seminar in Würzburg.This paper intends to harmonize two different approaches employed in the analysis of business cycles and, in doing so, it retrieves the stylized facts of the business cycle in Europe.
Theoretical and empirical contributions are both welcome.
If European countries used similar criteria to those used in the US for determining economic cycles, the Great Recession in many of them would quite possibly be considered an ongoing five-year slump.
Such measurement issues may sound like a matter of minor technical details, but they can have significant real-world implications.
The conference will cover a broad range of themes related to the estimation of the effects of unconventional monetary policies in the data. Gürkaynak (Bilkent University and CEPR), Frank Smets (ECB and CEPR) and Jonathan Wright (Johns Hopkins University) are confirmed invited speakers. The tenth conference organized by the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy (IRFMP) will be held at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D. Most DSGE model used by policy institutions are generally of large scale and little attention is generally paid to issues like model misspecification, model evaluation, model reduction and re-specification.
This course offers hints on how one can address these all these issues in a unified way and make economic analyses more robust.